There are several things in the plans that GM announced yesterday that give me hope as a Saab fan.
First, the mere fact that Saab continue to be mentioned was a good thing. The fact that them being mentioned wasn’t in terms of them being liquidated was another good thing. That the 9-4x was spoken of was a good thing. That the new 9-5 was spoken of was a good thing.
But there are still several things that were (or weren’t) mentioned that raised red flags for me.
1) Dodgy assumptions
GM have based their numbers on certain economic conditions. For example, they assume that new vehicle sales will fall to 14 million vehicles in the United States. This is less than what many people are predicting, so they’re being conservative.
The worrying thing is that they’re also basing their numbers on an oil price of around $150 per barrel. This is for the next few years. Whilst oil has fallen a little this week, it closed at $147 per barrel last week. That $150 figure is looking very optomistic.
And that ties in perfectly with…..
2) 18 of 19
Much was made of the fact that 18 out of 19 of GM’s new releases over the next few years are going to be either cars or crossovers. The big news here is that they won’t be gas-guzzling trucks.
You’d think this would be a good thing, but I don’t think it’s as good as it seems on the surface. What they really need in the next few years is a core of smaller, more fuel efficient cars, in order to woo some of that market share back from the Japanese companies, who must be weary now from beating off customers with big sticks.
Those new cars/crossovers include the Saab 9-4x, the Cadillac CTS coupe, a Cadillac CTS wagon, Cadillac SRX crossover, Chevy Camaro, Buick Invicta, Chevy Equinox crossover, Chevy Traverse, Chevy Cruze (it’s a derivation of cruise, just in case you missed that) and the Chevy Volt. Add in the Saab 9-5, too.
That’s not 19 models, I know. GM are keeping a few up their sleeve. But have a look at them. No, they’re not gigantic hulking SUV’s and they may even be fuel efficient relative to the competitors in their respective segments.
The problem is that nearly all the segments are midsize and above. In these fuel-conscious times, where they’d really need vehicles consistently getting 30mpg or more, they’re introducing barely any that are likely to hit that mark.
Please note that there’s still no confirmation about a Saab 9-1 being produced. Instead, Saab themselves are going to produce a six-cylinder crossover for the United States market. The 1.4 litre motor that was unveiled in the 9-X BioHybrid (well, the petrol version of it, at least) will go into the Chevy Cruze and may never see the inside of a Saab engine bay.
——
Right now, GM are implementing decisions that were made a couple of years ago. That’s how long it takes to design and build a new car.
A few years ago, they didn’t see that oil would cost what it costs now. But they should have seen it trending that way and made plans.
——
An interesting side note…..
Saab’s ad account with McCann Erickson is worth $55 million in 2008.
How much do you think GM are spending on Cadillac in Europe. I reckon they’d be burning $55m in Europe quite easily when you look at new dealerships taking it on, developing Euro-centric marketing and promotional material, etc.
Now imagine how much better Saab could do in Europe if they had an amount equivalent to SaabUSA’s ad budget to pump out more advertising in Germany and Spain.
Kill Caddy in Europe - you know it makes sense.
-
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a2a_linkname="A few things that worry me about GM's plans";
a2a_linkurl="http://www.trollhattansaab.net/archives/2008/07/a-few-things-that-worry-me-about-gms-plans.html";
![Image]()
First, the mere fact that Saab continue to be mentioned was a good thing. The fact that them being mentioned wasn’t in terms of them being liquidated was another good thing. That the 9-4x was spoken of was a good thing. That the new 9-5 was spoken of was a good thing.
But there are still several things that were (or weren’t) mentioned that raised red flags for me.
1) Dodgy assumptions
GM have based their numbers on certain economic conditions. For example, they assume that new vehicle sales will fall to 14 million vehicles in the United States. This is less than what many people are predicting, so they’re being conservative.
The worrying thing is that they’re also basing their numbers on an oil price of around $150 per barrel. This is for the next few years. Whilst oil has fallen a little this week, it closed at $147 per barrel last week. That $150 figure is looking very optomistic.
And that ties in perfectly with…..
2) 18 of 19
Much was made of the fact that 18 out of 19 of GM’s new releases over the next few years are going to be either cars or crossovers. The big news here is that they won’t be gas-guzzling trucks.
You’d think this would be a good thing, but I don’t think it’s as good as it seems on the surface. What they really need in the next few years is a core of smaller, more fuel efficient cars, in order to woo some of that market share back from the Japanese companies, who must be weary now from beating off customers with big sticks.
Those new cars/crossovers include the Saab 9-4x, the Cadillac CTS coupe, a Cadillac CTS wagon, Cadillac SRX crossover, Chevy Camaro, Buick Invicta, Chevy Equinox crossover, Chevy Traverse, Chevy Cruze (it’s a derivation of cruise, just in case you missed that) and the Chevy Volt. Add in the Saab 9-5, too.
That’s not 19 models, I know. GM are keeping a few up their sleeve. But have a look at them. No, they’re not gigantic hulking SUV’s and they may even be fuel efficient relative to the competitors in their respective segments.
The problem is that nearly all the segments are midsize and above. In these fuel-conscious times, where they’d really need vehicles consistently getting 30mpg or more, they’re introducing barely any that are likely to hit that mark.
Please note that there’s still no confirmation about a Saab 9-1 being produced. Instead, Saab themselves are going to produce a six-cylinder crossover for the United States market. The 1.4 litre motor that was unveiled in the 9-X BioHybrid (well, the petrol version of it, at least) will go into the Chevy Cruze and may never see the inside of a Saab engine bay.
——
Right now, GM are implementing decisions that were made a couple of years ago. That’s how long it takes to design and build a new car.
A few years ago, they didn’t see that oil would cost what it costs now. But they should have seen it trending that way and made plans.
——
An interesting side note…..
Saab’s ad account with McCann Erickson is worth $55 million in 2008.
How much do you think GM are spending on Cadillac in Europe. I reckon they’d be burning $55m in Europe quite easily when you look at new dealerships taking it on, developing Euro-centric marketing and promotional material, etc.
Now imagine how much better Saab could do in Europe if they had an amount equivalent to SaabUSA’s ad budget to pump out more advertising in Germany and Spain.
Kill Caddy in Europe - you know it makes sense.
-
a2a_linkname="A few things that worry me about GM's plans";
a2a_linkurl="http://www.trollhattansaab.net/archives/2008/07/a-few-things-that-worry-me-about-gms-plans.html";
